Would we have a financial crisis that the best and brightest couldn't foresee? How would we know if the mass system of schooling had core systemic issues? How do you differentiate "deep confidence in forecasting models" from excessive peer-orientation?
Inside the Fed in 2006 - A Coming Crisis, and Banter - NYTimes.com:
"The transcripts of the 2006 meetings, released after a standard five-year delay, clearly show some of the nation’s pre-eminent economic minds did not fully understand the basic mechanics of the economy that they were charged with shepherding. The problem was not a lack of information; it was a lack of comprehension, born in part of their deep confidence in economic forecasting models that turned out to be broken."background posts
the best and the brightest